Measurement, Quantification and Economic Analysis: Numeracy in Economics

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Most economists assume that the mathematical and quantative sides of their science are relatively recent developments. Measurement, Quantification and Economic Analysis shows that this is a misconception. Its authors argue that economists have long relied on measurement and quantification as essential tools.
However, problems have arisen in adapting these tools from other fields. Ultimately, the authors are sceptical about the role which measurement and quantification tools now play in contemporary economic theory.

Measurement, Quantification and Economic Analysis: Numeracy in Economics Review

Ingrid Rima is the editor of this collection of essays dealing with numeracy(and innumeracy) in the economics profession.The essays are very uneven in quality and most fail to make the point,made long ago by John Maynard Keynes(economics) and Ludwig Boltzmann(physics),that far too much of the mathematical exposition found in economics exposition ,in general, and some areas of physics, is for mere adornment .It is used to "dress up" an article or book so as to impress the reader and has no real applicability in the scientific sense.Such use of mathematics is a fad and plays no role in either explanation or prediction.However,this was not the case for Keynes or Boltzmann.Keynes uses exactly the right amount of mathematical exposition needed in order to model his theories in both the A Treatise on Probability(1921,TP)and his General Theory(1936,GT).Anyone who attempts to read either book while skipping the mathematical and logical analysis provided will not be able to understand what it is that Keynes is doing.Bradley Bateman's(BB) essay 13 is a good example of the pitfalls into which an economist can fall who attempts to "interpret" Keynes's TP and GT without understanding what Keynes is doing in his theoretical analysis in both books.BB is certainly correct to argue that Keynes was the first economist to explicitly introduce expectations into macroeconomics.Unfortunately,BB does not know how Keynes did this,since he does not understand that ,first,Keynesian probabilities are primarily interval valued,second,that Keynes was the first scholar in history to develop an index to measure the weight of the evidence,w,and third,that Keynes was the first scholar to come up with a decision rule,his conventional coefficient of weight and risk,c,which incorporates weight of the evidence(uncertainty,ambiguity,vagueness)concerns along with nonlinear probability preferences and sub and super additive "probabilities".BB,unfortunately,accepted at face value the very poor assessments made about Keynes's TP by F Ramsey in two book reviews published in 1922 and 1926,respectively.Similarly,BB has no idea of how Keynes explicitly integrated expectations into his D-Z model in the GT ,because he did not cover chapters 20 and 21.These are the chapters in which Keynes did his mathematical modeling before he compared his model with the model A C Pigou had constructed in Part II,chapters 8-10,of his 1933 masterpiece,The Theory of Unemployment,in the appendix to chapter 19 of the GT.Keynes constructed the expected aggregate demand function,D=pO,where p is an expected price and the expected aggregate supply function,Z=P+wN,where P is expected economic profit.Keynes formed the aggregate supply curve ,which is the set of all expected results given differing expectations about future expected prices and future expected profits.It is obtained by setting D=Z.Instead, BB concludes that Keynes's "model" is some sort of intuitive hueristic device that Keynes never really developed at all in the GT.Keynes merely had some very interesting ideas that were never made concrete.

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